The crypto market has been a rollercoaster lately. Bitcoin clawed its way back above $100,000, but altcoins continue to bleed. Traders are asking the big question: Is the bull run over? Systematic trader Adam Bakay, known as @abetrade, doesn’t have a simple answer. His latest market breakdown offers a technical yet cautious perspective, balancing geopolitical risks with price action analysis.
Bakay points out that the market is still technically in an uptrend. Key swing lows remain unbroken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP held during April’s pullback. Still, he acknowledges a worrying sign: the failure to make new all-time highs, reminiscent of the 2021 peak. This is especially notable given institutional heavyweights like BlackRock now hold roughly 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
The clash between strong institutional interest and sluggish price momentum has made Bakay more defensive. ‘This is why I have been very defensive and kept most of my trades short-term,’ he says. His outlook hinges on two possibilities. Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 support zone, provided Middle East tensions don’t escalate. Or, it might dip to the $97,000-$95,000 range, where technical buffers like the 200-day moving average and the 90-day VWAP await.
Despite his caution, Bakay isn’t betting against Bitcoin. He notes declining open interest and early signs of spot bid activity since the April lows. The options market is sending mixed signals, with the 25-delta risk reversal skew sitting at -5, slightly negative but not yet flashing panic.
Ethereum gets a tougher assessment. ‘ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,’ Bakay remarks. He blames the failed breakout partly on the overhyped ‘DeFi Summer 2025’ narrative. ‘People are getting too horny, and the market made sure to punish them,’ he quips. Technically, ETH looks shaky, hovering near critical support at the 90-day VWAP and what Bakay calls a ‘pivotal level.’ A drop to $1,800 could be next.
Altcoins aren’t faring any better. Bakay observes that every glimmer of hope gets snuffed out quickly. The anticipated rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins hasn’t happened. Instead, capital seems to be shifting into crypto-related equities, which better reflect the ETF-driven macro play. Even Solana, a recent standout, is struggling. ‘SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,’ Bakay warns. The $100 mark is critical, as there’s little technical support below it.
Newer altcoins like Hype and Fartcoin got a brief mention. Fartcoin could appeal if it rebounds above $1 or $0.50, while Hype might find a floor below $30. But Bakay’s main takeaway is clear: this isn’t a market for reckless bets. Geopolitical uncertainty looms large, and volatility remains a constant threat. ‘I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,’ he says. Patience and risk management are key.
Bakay stops short of declaring the bull run dead. But his message is unmistakable: tread carefully. In a market where momentum has stalled, restraint is the smarter play.