India Ratings and Research has raised India’s GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year. The forecast now stands at 7 percent, a significant upward revision. This optimistic outlook stems from strong economic performance and global factors.
Ind-Ra’s new forecast is 70 basis points higher than its previous estimate of 6.3 percent. The agency had projected this lower figure back in July 2025. This revision reflects a more positive assessment of economic conditions.
The Reserve Bank of India projects GDP growth at 6.8 percent for the current fiscal. This is an improvement over last year’s 6.5 percent expansion. Both institutions show confidence in India’s economic trajectory.
India’s real GDP grew at 7.8 percent in the April to June period of FY26. This represents the fastest pace in five quarters. The strong performance has contributed to the revised growth forecast.
Official data for Q2 GDP growth estimates will be released on November 28. This upcoming data will provide further insights into economic trends. It will help validate current projections and inform future forecasts.
Both domestic and global landscapes have changed significantly since July 2025. These changes have influenced economic projections and policy considerations. The evolving environment requires continuous monitoring and assessment.
Major headwinds include the uncertain global scenario due to US unilateral tariff hikes. These tariffs apply to all countries, with India facing some of the highest rates since late August 2025. Such trade barriers pose challenges to global economic integration.
The economy has experienced several positive developments since the July forecast. Faster-than-expected inflation decline has been a key factor. This has helped increase real wage rates, particularly in rural areas.
GST rationalization has also contributed to the improved economic outlook. These reforms have streamlined tax structures and boosted business confidence. The combined effect has supported economic growth momentum.
Two major factors drove the sharp upward revision in growth forecast. The first is sharper-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter. This strong performance exceeded initial expectations and projections.
The second factor is the lower-than-estimated impact of US tariff hikes on global growth and trade. While concerns existed about potential disruptions, the actual effect has been more manageable. This has helped maintain global economic stability.
Devendra Kumar Pant, Ind-Ra Chief Economist and Head of Public Finance, highlighted these developments. He emphasized how both domestic and international factors have shaped the revised forecast. His analysis provides valuable context for understanding these economic shifts.
The improved growth forecast reflects India’s economic resilience. Despite global challenges, the economy continues to show strength and potential. This bodes well for future development and prosperity.
Economic indicators suggest sustained momentum across various sectors. The combination of domestic reforms and global adaptation has created favorable conditions. These elements support the positive growth trajectory.
As India moves forward, monitoring economic data remains crucial. The upcoming Q2 figures will provide additional insights. Continuous assessment helps ensure accurate projections and informed policy decisions.