A new report from the State Bank of India offers an optimistic outlook for the nation’s economic trajectory. It suggests India’s GDP growth for the fiscal year 2026 could be higher than current official projections. This hinges on a crucial upcoming revision to the statistical base year.
The National Statistical Office’s first advance estimate pegs GDP growth at 7.4 percent for FY26. This is a notable step up from the 6.5 percent estimated for the preceding year, FY25. Gross Value Added growth is estimated at 7.3 percent, with nominal GDP projected to grow at 8 percent.
SBI economists, however, see room for an upward revision. They believe the GDP growth for FY26 could reach around 7.5 percent. This positive bias is especially linked to the planned base year update.
The base year for calculating national accounts is set to be revised to 2022-23. Historical patterns show such revisions often lead to recalculated and typically higher growth figures. The report clearly states that growth is likely to be higher once the new base is released.
This isn’t just speculative. The second advance estimates, due on February 27, 2026, will incorporate more data. These numbers are fully expected to change following the base revision process.
The current 7.4 percent estimate is considered reasonable by SBI’s analysis. They note the historical difference between RBI and NSO growth estimates usually stays within 20-30 basis points. This consistency lends credibility to the initial forecast.
The growth momentum is projected to have a direct impact on individual prosperity. Per capita national income is expected to rise significantly. It is forecast to increase by Rs 16,025 annually, reaching Rs 2,47,487 in FY26.
Breaking down the numbers by sector reveals a mixed picture. Agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 3.1 percent in FY26. This is a slowdown from the 4.6 percent growth recorded in the previous fiscal year.
In contrast, the services sector continues to be the powerhouse of the economy. Its growth is estimated at a robust 9.1 percent for FY26. This outperforms the 7.2 percent growth seen last year, with all sub-sectors expected to accelerate.
The industry sector is also showing strength, expected to grow by 6.0 percent. This is marginally higher than the 5.9 percent growth in FY25. A key driver here is robust manufacturing growth, projected at 7.0 percent.
However, not all industrial components are sharing in the uptick. The mining sector is expected to decelerate, contracting by 0.7 percent in FY26. This is a notable shift from the 2.7 percent growth it experienced in FY25.
The overarching message from the SBI report is one of cautious optimism with a clear asterisk. The upcoming statistical revisions are a critical factor. They have the potential to materially alter the current growth landscape.
Investors and policymakers should therefore view these initial estimates as a starting point. The final picture will come into sharper focus after the base year update. The data refinement process is integral to accurate economic measurement.
India’s economic story for FY26 is still being written. The SBI analysis provides a compelling preview, suggesting the final chapters may be even stronger than the draft. The focus now shifts to the forthcoming revisions that will solidify the narrative.