A first-of-its-kind survey conducted by Dalit activists offers a deep dive into the political and social sentiments of Bihar’s Dalit communities. The study, led by the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) and The Convergent Media (TCM), is the largest participatory survey of its kind in the state. It involved 18,581 respondents across 49 Assembly constituencies, with a strong focus on regions like Kosi, Mithilanchal, and Seemanchal.
What sets this survey apart is its participatory approach. A team of 98 Dalit youth, trained through intensive workshops, conducted the fieldwork over 25 days. At a press conference, NACDAOR Chairman Ashok Bharti emphasized that this was more than just data collection. It was about empowering Dalits to own their narratives and political awareness.
The findings reveal a clear preference for the Mahagathbandhan alliance, led by RJD and Congress, which commands 46.13% support among Dalit voters. The NDA trails at 31.93%, with its strongest hold in Seemanchal. The results also highlight a decline in support for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, particularly among Mahadalits. Some groups, like the Dusadhs, showed as little as 18.79% backing for him.
When it comes to leadership, Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the most favored among Dalit respondents, with 28.83% support. Chirag Paswan followed closely at 25.88%, while Nitish Kumar lagged behind at 22.80%. This suggests a generational shift in political preferences, with younger leaders gaining traction.
Unemployment stood out as the biggest concern, with 58% of respondents citing it as their primary issue. In regions like Kosi, this figure soared to 80.5%. Poor education, healthcare, and corruption were other major grievances. The survey also noted a strong emotional connection to late Dalit icon Ram Vilas Paswan, who remains influential among 52.35% of respondents.
Trust in institutions was another key theme. Only 51.22% of those surveyed expressed confidence in the Election Commission, and over 27% felt it lacked impartiality. Fear of being removed from voter lists was reported by 71.56%, particularly among the Ravidas and Pasi communities.
The survey debunked the myth that Dalits vote solely along caste lines. While caste remains a factor, 44.66% said they prioritize individual candidates, and 32.51% base their vote on party affiliation. Only 10.09% consider caste the primary factor. This shift signals a move toward issue-driven politics.
With 82.89% of respondents advocating for expanded reservation, the survey underscores a growing demand for systemic change. It also highlights the diverse voices within Bihar’s Dalit communities, particularly the three largest groups: Dusadh, Ravidas, and Musahar, who make up nearly 98% of the state’s Dalit population.
The implications for Bihar’s political landscape are significant. The findings suggest a shift from identity-based mobilization to performance-driven expectations, setting the stage for a more dynamic and issue-focused electoral battleground.